The COVID-19 pandemic continues
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Salty Dog
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 Posted: Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:03 pm Post subject: |
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The USA is reporting something like 187,000 deaths. I have heard the actual count of deaths attributed solely to COVID virus is about 9200 deaths, only 6 percent of the total. I have also heard the positive cases reported are also grossly overstated. |
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corsair91
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| Posted: Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:26 pm Post subject: |
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United States
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Last updated: September 11, 2020, 20:18 GMT
Coronavirus Cases:
6,620,602
Deaths:
196,985
Recovered:
3,887,783
See webpage for Table List of by States cases & deaths
Top 5 states are currently:
1 California
2 Texas
3 Florida
4 New York
5 Georgia
Reported Cases and Deaths by Country
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Top 5 Countries are currently:
1 USA
2 India
3 Brazil
4 Russia
5 Peru
...
7 Mexico
14 UK
21 Germany
26 Canada
38 Sweden
39 China
45 Japan
72 Australia
76 S. Korea
150 New Zealand
Last edited by corsair91 on Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:40 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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fleetp
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| Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:20 am Post subject: |
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| Salty Dog wrote: | | The USA is reporting something like 187,000 deaths. I have heard the actual count of deaths attributed solely to COVID virus is about 9200 deaths, only 6 percent of the total. I have also heard the positive cases reported are also grossly overstated. |
Dead from Covid 19 complicated by other health issues is still dead. |
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Roland
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| Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:59 pm Post subject: |
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| Salty Dog wrote: | | The USA is reporting something like 187,000 deaths. I have heard the actual count of deaths attributed solely to COVID virus is about 9200 deaths, only 6 percent of the total. I have also heard the positive cases reported are also grossly overstated. |
Actually, this count of COVID deaths is probably conservative. Given the high false negative rate in COVID tests, some cases go undetected. Furthermore, it would be easy to miss the impact of COVID in a person whose health is already fragile for other reasons - e.g., diabetes or heart disease.
There is another problem: a severe shortage of forensic pathologists to carry out autopsies. Our medical schools just don’t turn out enough forensic pathologists. Given the prominence of this specialty on TV crime shows, one might think it would attract a lot of students. But forensic pathology is a 9-to-5 government job, which does not pay nearly as well as other specialties. Doctors with student loans to repay can’t seriously consider it, so positions go unfilled. The system was already running at capacity before the opioid epidemic hit. Now a lot of deaths for which an autopsy is legally required (which includes all injury and poisoning deaths) don’t receive an autopsy, including opioid overdoses. So I’m sure there have been some COVID-complicated deaths (e.g., an elderly person with a preexisting heart or lung disease who is pushed over the edge by undiagnosed COVID) who have slipped through the cracks.
CDC's count of nonfatal COVID cases is definitely an undercount. There have probably been at least three times as many cases as CDC reports, given the 30% false negative rate, the large number of asymptomatic cases, and the restricted availability of tests before June. |
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corsair91
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| Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 1:28 am Post subject: |
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The only 9,210 bogus covid deaths claim is due to a Fake News Twitter Post
Further details here
No, the CDC did not ‘quietly adjust’ U.S. coronavirus deaths from 153,504 to 9,210
Social posts have misconstrued data from the CDC and claimed the deaths were from other causes. President Trump retweeted one such false claim.
https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2020/no-the-cdc-did-not-quietly-adjust-u-s-coronavirus-deaths-from-153504-to-9210/
September 1, 2020
or here
No, the CDC Has Not “Quietly Updated†COVID-19 Death Estimates
An online conspiracy theory retweeted by President Donald Trump misconstrued data regarding the number of people who have died from the coronavirus.
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/no-the-cdc-has-not-quietly-updated-covid-19-death-estimates-67902
Sep 1, 2020
Current United States Covid Deaths is 198,128
Last updated: September 13, 2020, 01:29 GMT
This is a CNN Covid Deaths Projection
The US coronavirus death toll is projected to reach 410,000 in the next 4 months if mask use wanes
By Mallika Kallingal, Steve Almasy, Faith Karimi and Marcelo Garate, CNN
Updated 0224 GMT (1024 HKT) September 5, 2020
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/04/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html
For Comparison
World War II casualties
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties
US WW2 Military Deaths 407,300
Covid is on track to exceed US WW2 deaths by the End of the year,
if not sooner.
And could well exceed the Death Toll of the most deadly American war
in history, The Civil War by say Spring/Summer 2021.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War
Total Deaths Union & Confederate : 616,222 (estimated)
Last edited by corsair91 on Sun Sep 13, 2020 4:29 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Roland
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| Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 4:01 am Post subject: |
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Great article. I work with this dataset - the Multiple Cause of Death data - all the time. On my computer I have a record of every death that occurred in the US from 1999 through 2018. If you know how to interpret the data, you can actually reconstruct the chain of causes leading to death, as determined by the doctor who signed the death certificate. I'm one of the few researchers who actually does that, and even I don't do it very often. Usually, the official underlying cause of death tells you what you need to know. |
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Salty Dog
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| Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 5:59 pm Post subject: |
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Then if you work with the data you know how many people usually die from Influenza, heart attacks and every other disease. Have the other reported deaths from these other causes come down? If so, they are being picked up as COVID deaths. |
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Salty Dog
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| Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 6:25 pm Post subject: |
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I think this article from CDC describes the situation most clearly. This is a top level approach. Go to the "Dashboard" controls and click on Excess deaths with and without COVID-19". This shows the results quite well. |
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Roland
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| Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:45 pm Post subject: |
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| Salty Dog wrote: | | Then if you work with the data you know how many people usually die from Influenza, heart attacks and every other disease. Have the other reported deaths from these other causes come down? If so, they are being picked up as COVID deaths. |
I can give you those numbers for any year through 2018. It takes NCHS about a year and a half to get the data in shape for release to the public. They collect the data from the states, which in turn collect them from localities. Data are often submitted in a preliminary form, to be updated or corrected later, so waiting longer results in better data. |
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Roland
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| Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:02 pm Post subject: |
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| Salty Dog wrote: | | I think this article from CDC describes the situation most clearly. This is a top level approach. Go to the "Dashboard" controls and click on Excess deaths with and without COVID-19". This shows the results quite well. |
No, CDC takes a bottom-up approach. You are using a top-level approach. When you just look at total excess deaths, you are getting the difference in net totals. Example: With most of us working at home now, there is a lot less driving, and therefore a lot fewer highway crashes, resulting in fewer highway deaths. Perhaps you want to count this reduction in highway deaths as a "benefit" of COVID, which offsets the deaths from the virus itself, but CDC does not look at it that way.
The question of how to treat deaths with multiple causes is a complex one. But the consensus, in most cases, is to rely on the underlying cause of death, as determined by the doctor who filled out the death certificate. There is no incentive to manipulate counts of COVID deaths. About the only such manipulations I have seen concern suicides, with some localities tending to call them undetermined intent to save the family embarrassment. (The system formerly had a bias towards attributing deaths to illness rather than injury, but they fixed that after I bugged them about it for several years.)
One instance where we do look at multiple causes is in drug-poisoning deaths. Since most people who die from an overdose are using multiple substances, we want to take all of the substances into account. There is professional disagreement about the best way to do that. |
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Salty Dog
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| Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:40 am Post subject: |
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We are hearing from multiple sources that the cause of death on death certificates is mis-reported. I am hearing many reports of people being told to report COVID when they would not normally do so. Same thing with positive results, I hear of large groups of people being classified as positive when when only or two people are tested. I don't believe for a second that the
COVID cases in the USA are substantially higher than other countries. I see nothing that would cause the US to have a higher rate of infection. People are people everywhere.
I also don't believe the China numbers at all. They probably have over a million deaths with their huge population. |
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Salty Dog
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| Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:43 am Post subject: |
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| corsair91 wrote: | hydroxychloroquine
This drug is used to treat malaria and autoimmune conditions like lupus and rheumatoid arthritis.
This is a drug taken by US President Donald Trump to combat covid-19
potential side effects are:
Dangerously rapid heart rate
Abnormal heart rhythms
Problems with the heart muscle properly recharging between beats
Issues with the heart's ability to pump blood around the body
Severe hypoglycemia
Rupturing of red blood cells
Low counts for platelets and red and white blood cells
Liver failure
Kidney failure
Increased risk of seizures
Psychosis
Delirium
Suicidal behaviour
Hallucinations
Retina damage
and they let this guy near the nuclear football!
Trump's Finanicial interest in hydroxychloroquine
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/apr/09/facebook-posts/trump-has-tiny-financial-stake-company-manufacture/ |
My wife has a prescription to this drug and takes it every day for an auto-immune syndrome called Shogruns (sp?). This drug has been on the market for about 65 years. |
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Roland
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| Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:27 pm Post subject: |
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| Salty Dog wrote: | | We are hearing from multiple sources that the cause of death on death certificates is mis-reported. I am hearing many reports of people being told to report COVID when they would not normally do so. |
Could you post one of these sources? The claim of falsification of death certificates is of professional interest to me as a user of death certificate data. I'm betting most of the claims could be traced back to Russia, China, or other politically motivated actors.
| Salty Dog wrote: | | Same thing with positive results, I hear of large groups of people being classified as positive when when only or two people are tested. |
It sounds like you are confusing different types of testing. The sort of testing where multiple samples are tested together is not the source of CDC's official counts of cases. And there is no way anyone would make the sort of rookie mistake you describe in reporting the results. |
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corsair91
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| Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:48 pm Post subject: |
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| Salty Dog wrote: | I don't believe for a second that the
COVID cases in the USA are substantially higher than other countries. I see nothing that would cause the US to have a higher rate of infection. People are people everywhere.
I also don't believe the China numbers at all. They probably have over a million deaths with their huge population. |
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United States
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Last updated: September 14, 2020, 16:30 GMT
Coronavirus Cases: 6,720,083
Deaths: 198,660
Recovered: 3,982,262
Total tests: 92,556,629
China has 4,634 Deaths and 160,000,000 Tests
China did what America didn't do, effectively shudown the country,
mandatory masks and social distance and quarantine travel
restrictions with GPs tracking of phones and tested, tested and HAD a plan
which worked and able to reopen China again.
Also built a Covid Hospital from scratch in 1-2 weeks.
America did things piecemeal slowly, if at all and the numbers reflect this.
Amercia's numbers if anything are understating things, as not enough
testing to find the virus already out there.
Idealogs fantasy meet reality and reality in the form of the virus always wins out when given a gilded invitation to spread the infection.
America didn't just shoot itself in the foot, but blew off both feet
with a shotgun and bleeding out, hobbling around on the ankle stumps
with the highest covid numbers on the planet.
Last edited by corsair91 on Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:49 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Salty Dog
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| Posted: Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:46 pm Post subject: |
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I have been hearing from doctors that COVID weakens the immune system and that enables other, preexisting diseases to increase and cause death. In the USA, COVID is given as the cause for death. In other countries, the pre-existing disease is given credit for death. This probably explains why the USA has higher death numbers. |
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